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Research Report · Twitter Alpha

Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) Backtest v3: 383 BULL Picks vs XSD Sector ETF

A strict-sentiment, first-mention-hold backtest of every BULL stock Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) posted on X between July 2, 2025 and May 17, 2026. 5,126 bullish mentions across 383 unique tickers, equal-weighted, held to today, benchmarked against XSD (S&P Semiconductor ETF) and SPY over identical windows.
Published 2026-05-18 Period: Jul 2, 2025 → May 17, 2026 319 days · 10 months 15 days Methodology v3 (explicit BEAR only)
VERDICT: FADE SIGNAL · net alpha -37.32%
383
Unique BULL tickers
5,126
Total BULL mentions
101d
Avg hold duration
+25.6%
Mean hold return
-37.3%
Mean alpha vs XSD
21.1%
Alpha win rate
55.9%
Raw win rate
+62.9%
XSD same period
Prefer the print version? Download the full 10-page PDF with every table, methodology notes, and limitations. Same data, paginated for offline reading and sharing with your trading desk.
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Headline Findings What we found when we held every BULL pick to today.

The equal-weighted Serenity BULL portfolio lost to its own sector ETF by 37 percentage points.

Buying every BULL pick on the day of its first bullish mention — at equal weight, holding to today — returned a mean of +25.60% (median +5.38%). Over the same period, simply buying XSD on the same entry dates would have returned +62.93%. Net alpha: -37.32% mean, -51.72% median.

Only 21.1% of BULL picks beat the sector. 79% underperformed. The "if Serenity is BULL, just buy the sector ETF" strategy would have performed roughly 5× better.

That said: ~20 picks are real skill.

AXTI +711% (alpha +646), SNDK +516%, AAOI +438%, NBIS +310%, MU +280%, INTC +270%, AEHR +264%, LITE +208%, RKLB +162%. The cluster is almost entirely photonics / CPO / memory — a genuine domain edge. The problem is the other 363 picks drag the portfolio down.

Mega-cap trap: the most-mentioned names did the most damage.

HIMS -47% (45 BULL mentions), CRCL -37% (46), MSTR -54% (17), IBIT -27% (20), BTC -27% (16), COIN -43%, MARA -22%, SOFI -31%. Several "high-conviction" mega-caps produced 100-170% alpha drag. High mention count does not equal high accuracy.

Top 25 Winners Entry on first BULL mention day → close of May 17, 2026. Hold = calendar days. Alpha = net outperformance vs XSD.

TickerFirst BULLDaysEntry $ReturnAlpha vs XSDMax DD# BULL
AXTI2025-12-2210015.26+711.14%+645.76%-38.65%231
SNDK2025-11-25118228.40+516.29%+435.70%-25.85%60
SIVEF2026-03-23391.07+456.07%+389.69%-37.58%12
AAOI2025-12-1210635.40+437.82%+376.95%-33.40%191
MXL2026-03-174317.46+428.87%+365.46%-14.37%4
DOCN2025-10-0215636.81+320.73%+251.86%-24.11%1
NBIS2025-07-2120853.71+309.50%+208.13%-45.47%329
MU2025-10-13149190.79+279.82%+212.11%-30.31%74
INTC2025-09-2416229.38+270.22%+200.07%-24.17%53
AEHR2026-01-168327.35+263.80%+209.80%-31.59%71
WOLF2026-01-267817.95+246.13%+190.28%-30.22%5
SLOIF2026-03-025450.42+242.28%+181.69%-20.16%4
LPKFF2026-01-20828.10+220.99%+162.74%-30.41%2
STX2025-11-25118251.18+216.69%+136.10%-21.00%1
LITE2025-12-01115314.99+208.17%+134.29%-28.70%225
HUT2025-09-2915934.07+200.76%+130.12%-38.62%5
OSS2025-11-051325.57+195.69%+129.77%-38.32%35
PL2025-10-1314915.21+173.64%+105.93%-29.01%8
RKLB2025-09-1916547.68+161.68%+90.44%-43.01%63
RVI2026-03-094921.46+151.86%+78.21%-26.67%1
TSEM2026-03-0949109.32+150.62%+76.97%-15.98%53
TTMI2025-12-0111568.80+143.24%+69.37%-23.26%1
CIEN2026-01-0691230.20+140.86%+80.07%-16.84%3
COHR2025-12-01115160.41+138.42%+64.54%-26.52%114
SILC2026-02-096820.26+137.31%+83.09%-13.66%1

Top 25 Losers Names called BULL that lost the most from first mention to today. Many are small-cap memes or wrong-sector picks.

TickerFirst BULLDaysEntry $ReturnAlpha vs XSDMax DD# BULL
DFLI2025-10-0815214.20-86.97%-153.27%-91.98%2
OPAD2025-09-181664.53-86.09%-159.72%-88.68%2
SMR2025-10-1514748.24-76.72%-134.83%-82.86%1
CAR2026-04-2119624.00-75.94%-103.95%-79.59%1
SPRB2025-10-07153211.95-74.63%-136.06%-72.77%2
BZAI2025-10-201445.09-74.26%-132.99%-79.39%1
NKLR2025-10-1514719.40-69.89%-128.00%-77.28%1
SYAAF2026-01-26780.21-64.29%-120.13%-66.81%1
CVAT2025-10-311350.08-62.50%-118.34%-81.82%1
BIRD2026-04-211911.20-60.63%-88.63%-48.12%1
BMNR2025-09-2516148.96-59.42%-134.62%-72.48%18
DUOL2025-11-05132262.78-57.36%-123.28%-65.38%6
RR2025-10-131496.15-56.42%-124.13%-72.07%2
KTOS2026-01-1386118.91-56.19%-112.82%-60.15%4
ASAN2025-09-1816614.03-55.81%-129.44%-64.06%1
VCX2026-03-2636445.00-55.73%-119.98%-70.66%7
BKKT2025-09-2416218.62-55.53%-125.68%-84.57%11
DJT2025-07-2820319.30-55.08%-159.97%-54.92%8
RGTI2025-10-0615438.81-54.00%-116.47%-77.10%16
MSTR2025-07-02220383.34-53.72%-168.23%-76.53%17
AREC2026-01-26784.71-53.29%-109.14%-48.12%1
OKLO2025-10-06154131.40-52.62%-115.09%-73.83%11
EOSE2025-10-2014416.20-51.45%-110.18%-77.10%3
BTBT2025-10-311353.64-50.41%-106.26%-65.44%1
QUBT2025-10-1314919.94-47.32%-115.03%-71.03%1

Top 25 Alpha Losers (vs XSD) Raw return on some of these is "only" -30%, but because XSD returned +114% in the same period, alpha is -160%. This is the strongest evidence for the "right sector, wrong stock" thesis.

TickerFirst BULLDaysHold retXSD retAlpha# BULL
MSTR2025-07-02220-53.72%+114.51%-168.23%17
DJT2025-07-28203-55.08%+104.89%-159.97%8
OPAD2025-09-18166-86.09%+73.63%-159.72%2
BULL2025-07-02220-43.66%+114.51%-158.16%14
COIN2025-07-02220-42.62%+114.51%-157.13%14
HIMS2025-07-07218-46.73%+109.34%-156.07%45
UPWK2025-07-02220-39.57%+114.51%-154.08%14
DFLI2025-10-08152-86.97%+66.30%-153.27%2
SG2025-07-03219-43.43%+108.04%-151.46%6
DNUT2025-07-23206-43.53%+106.02%-149.56%2
CRCL2025-07-03219-37.42%+108.04%-145.46%46
SPOT2025-07-28203-36.33%+104.89%-141.21%1
IBIT2025-07-02220-26.67%+114.51%-141.18%20
BTC2025-07-02220-26.59%+114.51%-141.10%16
MARA2025-07-02220-22.01%+114.51%-136.51%9
SPRB2025-10-07153-74.63%+61.44%-136.06%2
SMR2025-10-15147-76.72%+58.11%-134.83%1
BMNR2025-09-25161-59.42%+75.20%-134.62%18
SOFI2025-07-31200-31.16%+102.94%-134.09%8
BZAI2025-10-20144-74.26%+58.73%-132.99%1
HOOD2025-07-02220-15.46%+114.51%-129.97%61
ASAN2025-09-18166-55.81%+73.63%-129.44%1
RKT2025-07-23206-22.92%+106.02%-128.95%2
NKLR2025-10-15147-69.89%+58.11%-128.00%1
BKKT2025-09-24162-55.53%+70.15%-125.68%11

High-Conviction Names (≥10 BULL mentions) The names Serenity talked about most — the "high conviction" picks. Verdict reflects alpha vs XSD bucketed by magnitude.

Ticker# BULLFirst BULLHold retXSD retAlphaVerdict
MSTR172025-07-02-53.72%+114.51%-168.23%Devastating loss
BULL142025-07-02-43.66%+114.51%-158.16%Devastating loss
COIN142025-07-02-42.62%+114.51%-157.13%Devastating loss
HIMS452025-07-07-46.73%+109.34%-156.07%Devastating loss
UPWK142025-07-02-39.57%+114.51%-154.08%Devastating loss
CRCL462025-07-03-37.42%+108.04%-145.46%Devastating loss
IBIT202025-07-02-26.67%+114.51%-141.18%Devastating loss
BTC162025-07-02-26.59%+114.51%-141.10%Devastating loss
BMNR182025-09-25-59.42%+75.20%-134.62%Devastating loss
HOOD612025-07-02-15.46%+114.51%-129.97%Devastating loss
BKKT112025-09-24-55.53%+70.15%-125.68%Devastating loss
MSFT1422025-07-28-17.93%+104.89%-122.81%Devastating loss
RDDT572025-09-15-38.37%+83.69%-122.07%Devastating loss
ETH212025-09-25-43.96%+75.20%-119.16%Devastating loss
META1262025-07-28-14.12%+104.89%-119.01%Devastating loss
CRWV972025-07-21-15.20%+101.37%-116.56%Devastating loss
RGTI162025-10-06-54.00%+62.47%-116.47%Devastating loss
OKLO112025-10-06-52.62%+62.47%-115.09%Devastating loss
SMCI322025-09-15-31.37%+83.69%-115.07%Devastating loss
ORCL572025-09-24-38.13%+70.15%-108.27%Devastating loss
AVAV202026-01-02-36.41%+67.36%-103.76%Devastating loss
SNAP342025-10-06-35.36%+62.47%-97.83%Devastating loss
UBER152025-11-24-10.77%+83.89%-94.66%Devastating loss
PLTR172025-10-13-25.01%+67.71%-92.72%Devastating loss
AMZN1052025-07-28+13.19%+104.89%-91.69%Devastating loss
AIRO222026-01-02-23.16%+67.36%-90.52%Devastating loss
MP102025-09-24-19.82%+70.15%-89.97%Devastating loss
NVO112025-09-29-17.36%+70.64%-88.00%Devastating loss
SLNH142025-09-29-15.91%+70.64%-86.55%Devastating loss
TSLA392025-09-15-0.21%+83.69%-83.90%Devastating loss
GLXY142025-09-29-8.40%+70.64%-79.04%Devastating loss
NVDA1882025-07-28+29.48%+104.89%-75.41%Devastating loss
CLSK112025-09-29-1.50%+70.64%-72.14%Devastating loss
LPTH212026-01-15-18.01%+53.94%-71.95%Devastating loss
SSYS162026-01-15-16.49%+53.94%-70.43%Devastating loss
WYFI132025-09-29+2.63%+70.64%-68.01%Devastating loss
ETOR162025-10-13+2.47%+67.71%-65.24%Devastating loss
XLU342026-02-19-4.17%+53.91%-58.08%Devastating loss
HPS202026-04-10+0.84%+49.36%-48.52%Trailed the sector
IREN1932025-09-24+22.02%+70.15%-48.12%Trailed the sector
SPY132025-10-28+7.59%+55.69%-48.10%Trailed the sector
CVX162026-01-05+15.29%+60.87%-45.57%Trailed the sector
AVGO602025-09-30+28.80%+73.88%-45.08%Trailed the sector
KRKNF152025-11-03+14.22%+54.77%-40.55%Trailed the sector
AAPL242026-02-18+13.90%+51.93%-38.03%Trailed the sector
TE152025-10-20+24.89%+58.73%-33.84%Trailed the sector
APLD162025-10-29+21.60%+54.82%-33.22%Trailed the sector
IBKR182025-10-28+24.29%+55.69%-31.40%Trailed the sector
WLAC212025-10-13+39.17%+67.71%-28.54%Trailed the sector
TSM902025-09-23+43.18%+69.11%-25.93%Trailed the sector
FN122026-02-27+31.36%+57.27%-25.91%Trailed the sector
FLY152025-10-08+41.31%+66.30%-24.99%Trailed the sector
FLNC192025-10-13+48.36%+67.71%-19.35%Trailed the sector
CRDO312025-07-21+84.58%+101.37%-16.78%Trailed the sector
ASML132025-10-17+47.15%+60.67%-13.52%Trailed the sector
ONDS152025-11-18+72.54%+85.47%-12.93%Trailed the sector
JBL402025-12-01+62.87%+73.88%-11.01%Trailed the sector
EWY402026-02-05+50.43%+61.43%-11.01%Trailed the sector
LASR102026-02-12+37.47%+47.92%-10.45%Trailed the sector
BITF152025-09-29+68.20%+70.64%-2.44%Trailed the sector
FORM122026-01-22+48.87%+49.14%-0.27%Trailed the sector
CIFR892025-09-29+71.34%+70.64%+0.70%Beat the sector
ALAB352025-07-21+110.04%+101.37%+8.67%Beat the sector
GOOGL1392025-07-03+122.29%+108.04%+14.25%Beat the sector
MTSI312026-01-22+63.41%+49.14%+14.27%Beat the sector
GLW122026-02-05+78.34%+61.43%+16.91%Beat the sector
GFS192026-01-20+76.69%+58.25%+18.45%Beat the sector
VLN362026-01-09+78.36%+58.88%+19.49%Beat the sector
ARM262026-01-22+73.28%+49.14%+24.14%Beat the sector
AMD552025-10-06+87.28%+62.47%+24.81%Beat the sector
MRVL1092025-10-13+97.71%+67.71%+30.00%Beat the sector
WULF472025-09-29+101.81%+70.64%+31.17%Beat the sector
AMKR172025-10-20+118.82%+58.73%+60.09%Beat the sector
LWLG132026-03-12+127.50%+65.65%+61.85%Beat the sector
POET672025-12-12+124.61%+60.87%+63.75%Beat the sector
COHR1142025-12-01+138.42%+73.88%+64.54%Beat the sector
VPG232026-01-20+129.20%+58.25%+70.96%Beat the sector
TSEM532026-03-09+150.62%+73.65%+76.97%Beat the sector
RKLB632025-09-19+161.68%+71.24%+90.44%Beat the sector
OSS352025-11-05+195.69%+65.92%+129.77%Big winner
LITE2252025-12-01+208.17%+73.88%+134.29%Big winner
INTC532025-09-24+270.22%+70.15%+200.07%Big winner
NBIS3292025-07-21+309.50%+101.37%+208.13%Big winner
AEHR712026-01-16+263.80%+54.01%+209.80%Big winner
MU742025-10-13+279.82%+67.71%+212.11%Big winner
AAOI1912025-12-12+437.82%+60.87%+376.95%Big winner
SIVEF122026-03-23+456.07%+66.38%+389.69%Big winner
SNDK602025-11-25+516.29%+80.59%+435.70%Big winner
AXTI2312025-12-22+711.14%+65.38%+645.76%Big winner

Portfolio Simulation: Serenity BULL vs XSD $10K starting capital, equal-weighted into every BULL pick on first-mention day vs the same dollars into XSD on the same dates.

ScenarioFinal valueReturnDescription
$10K equal-weight Serenity BULL (383 picks)$12,560+25.60%Equal ~$26 into each BULL pick
$10K equal-weight XSD same dates$16,293+62.93%Buy XSD on the same entry dates
Difference (alpha)−$3,732−37.32%How far Serenity lagged

If you had started with $10K and put equal weight into every Serenity BULL pick, you would have $12,560 today (return +25.6%). Buying XSD on the same dates with the same money would have left you with $16,293 (return +62.9%). Net alpha: -37.32%.

This is naive equal-weight. With Kelly sizing, conviction-weighting (proportional to n_BULL_mentions), or market-cap weighting the numbers will move. The net signal does not: the Serenity BULL portfolio lost to the sector.

Distribution: Winners vs Losers

BucketCount% of 383 picks
3×+ winners (>200% return)164.2%
Beat sector by 100%+ alpha184.7%
50%+ losers (<-50% return)246.3%
Trailed sector by 100%+ alpha6717.5%

Methodology: v2 vs v3 Sentiment v2 used a sliding BULL/BEAR/NEUTRAL keyword window; v3 defaults every mention to BULL and only flips to BEAR on explicit bearish keywords (shorting, bearish on, avoid, dilution, bagholder, "$6B ATM", etc.). This eliminates a class of false BEAR labels.

Metricv2 (keyword window)v3 (explicit-only)
Sentiment classifierBULL/BEAR/NEUTRAL keyword windowDefault BULL + explicit BEAR only
BULL count7715,429
BEAR count627205
NEUTRAL count4,1580
AXTI BEAR mentions14 (13 false positives)2 (real)
IREN BEAR mentions47 (~7 false positives)31 (mostly real)
AXTI BULL mentions23226
Core hypothesisStrict sentiment separationSerenity defaults to BULL

Limitations & Honest Caveats

  1. No survivorship-bias control. Tweets Serenity later deleted or stance flips are not modeled in the first-mention-hold logic. Serenity may have called AXTI BULL at $17 and later tweeted that he sized down after the $58 run. We assume "buy and hold".
  2. Equal-weight is naive. Serenity openly shares his own $100K–500K position sizes. Under conviction-weighting (e.g. AXTI 231 mentions vs DUOL 6 mentions) the portfolio looks very different. Natural extension: size positions proportional to mention count.
  3. Bull-cycle risk. The Jul'25–May'26 window is a 10-month AI/Semi rally. In a bear cycle XSD also drops, and Serenity's high-beta BULL names probably drop more — the alpha picture may look different.
  4. Entry timing is not fully realistic. If a tweet hit after 16:00 ET we used the D+1 open. In practice the price can pop the moment the tweet goes out (viral to 302K followers), and the follower's fill is already higher.
  5. Stance flips. Serenity was BULL IREN through Q4 2025 and flipped BEAR in March 2026. Our first-mention-hold logic treats the entire post-first-BULL window as a hold, but a real holder would have stopped out or sold along the way. This is a "buy and forget" assumption.

Final Verdict

× Naive follow = net loss

383 BULL picks, equal-weight hold → -37% alpha drag over 10 months. Buying the sector ETF would have performed ~5× better. Alpha win rate 21% — 79% of picks underperformed.

+ The 20 winners are real skill

AXTI, SNDK, AAOI, NBIS, MU, INTC, AEHR, LITE — the photonics/CPO/memory thesis was genuine early discovery. These 20 names returned 2–7× on 100+ day holds.

! The mega-cap trap

HIMS (45 mentions) -47%, CRCL (46) -37%, MSTR (17) -54%, IBIT (20) -27%, BTC (16) -27%, COIN (14) -43%. Several mega-caps Serenity kept pumping were devastating. High mention count does not equal high accuracy.

Pragmatic strategy: cherry-pick + counter-trade.

1. Follow the photonics/CPO sector picks (AXTI / AAOI / LITE / COHR / AEHR / SNDK / MU / INTC) — this is the domain where Serenity has real edge.

2. Fade the crypto / fintech / meme picks (BULL / COIN / IBIT / MSTR / MARA / HIMS / SOFI / UPWK / SG) — this is the pump-and-hope domain.

3. Be especially careful with very high-engagement "high conviction" tweets — a viral tweet typically marks a local top.

Full 10-page PDF report All tables, methodology notes, v2 vs v3 comparison, limitations, and final verdict — one file. Free, no signup.
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Report generated 2026-05-18 by the fxcryptobots research desk. Source data: full X archive of Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) Jul 2 2025 – May 17 2026 (5,429 tweets, deduplicated, BULL/BEAR labels under v3 explicit-only sentiment rules). Price data: Yahoo Finance close-to-close. XSD = SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF. This is research, not investment advice; see our risk disclaimer.