The author. 45,631 followers, account opened 2026-03-15 (less than 3 months old), 1,923 lifetime tweets, bio: “AI / Semiconductor Analyst & Trader. Thematic investment research.” The output style is high-conviction supply-chain mapping — long-form theses connecting upstream component plays (substrates, lasers, optical interconnects) to downstream AI-capex demand. Top names across the 70-day window: $NVDA (36 mentions), $TSM, $AAOI, $IQE, $SIVE, $SNDK, $LITE, $NBIS, $AXTI, $MU, $MRVL, $META, $AEHR, $QCOM, $COHR, $INTC, $AVGO, $GOOGL, $AMZN, $MSFT.
Signal shape. Mix of mega-cap thesis-anchor names ($NVDA, $TSM, $META, $QCOM) and mid-cap supply-chain plays ($AAOI, $SIVE, $IQE, $AEHR). The differentiator vs broad-tech commentary is the explicit mapping from end-demand to component supplier.
| Sentiment | Horizon | n | Mean Ret | Median | Win Rate | Best | Worst | Alpha SPY | Alpha XLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BULL | 5d | 160 | +6.88% | +4.47% | 67.50% | +50.51% | -25.30% | +4.86% | +2.37% |
| BULL | 14d | 122 | +18.66% | +13.93% | 78.69% | +183.08% | -38.45% | +13.59% | +6.19% |
| BULL | 30d | 37 | +55.58% | +29.87% | 97.30% | +270.77% | -0.16% | +44.11% | +28.21% |
| BEAR | 5d | 43 | +9.11% | +7.67% | 72.09% | +53.08% | -21.18% | +6.40% | +4.28% |
| BEAR | 14d | 32 | +28.38% | +28.73% | 90.62% | +73.70% | -36.81% | +21.35% | +13.53% |
| BEAR | 30d | 14 | +67.22% | +46.67% | 92.86% | +157.37% | -3.60% | +52.43% | +33.37% |
| NEUTRAL | 5d | 173 | +5.88% | +3.33% | 63.01% | +58.19% | -19.93% | +4.03% | +1.77% |
| NEUTRAL | 14d | 110 | +17.95% | +12.05% | 76.36% | +111.72% | -19.83% | +12.46% | +5.16% |
| NEUTRAL | 30d | 43 | +41.44% | +31.98% | 88.37% | +164.36% | -35.42% | +29.19% | +13.75% |
The headline read. The 14-day horizon (n=122 BULL signals) and 30-day horizon (n=37) are both sized large enough to read seriously inside this window. Mean returns +18.66% / 14d and +55.58% / 30d; win rates 78.7% and 97.3%. Alpha vs XLK is +6.19% / 14d and +28.21% / 30d — meaningful even against the same-period tech-sector ETF (the most demanding benchmark).
The BEAR bucket also produced positive returns in this regime: most BEAR-tagged tweets were ticker-mention posts where the directional language was secondary to the underlying name being inside the AI-rally tape. Read the BULL numbers as the primary edge.
| # | Ticker | Mentions | # | Ticker | Mentions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $NVDA | 36 | 11 | $MRVL | 13 |
| 2 | $TSM | 20 | 12 | $META | 13 |
| 3 | $AAOI | 20 | 13 | $AEHR | 13 |
| 4 | $IQE | 19 | 14 | $QCOM | 11 |
| 5 | $SIVE | 19 | 15 | $COHR | 11 |
| 6 | $SNDK | 17 | 16 | $INTC | 11 |
| 7 | $LITE | 16 | 17 | $AVGO | 10 |
| 8 | $NBIS | 16 | 18 | $GOOGL | 10 |
| 9 | $AXTI | 15 | 19 | $AMZN | 9 |
| 10 | $MU | 14 | 20 | $MSFT | 8 |
| Date | Ticker | Ret 30d | Tweet preview |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-29 | $SIVEF | +270.77% | “$SIVE / $SIVEF Among small-cap photonics names, $SIVE offers arguably the most skewed R:R...” |
| 2026-03-30 | $SNDK | +146.12% | “$SNDK Gross margin: 29.9% -> 51.1% in a single quarter. Guide for next quarter: 65-67%.” |
| 2026-03-26 | $MU | +121.01% | “$MU buying back $5.4B in senior notes due 2031-35, settling April 3. That signals management...” |
| 2026-03-15 | $AEHR | +116.92% | “The most asymmetric AI supply chain setup atm is $AEHR. A $1B company with a literal monopoly...” |
| 2026-04-05 | $AXTI | +114.46% | “Finishing up my research on a couple of companies in crystal growth & substrate manufacturing...” |
| 2026-04-05 | $INTC | +112.60% | “$AMD are executing strong. Their Zen 6 leak points to a huge architectural leap that fundamentally...” |
| 2026-03-29 | $MU | +111.38% | “People think we're at peak memory demand? Lol. SK Hynix buying 2 yrs of competitive moat...” |
| 2026-04-09 | $AMD | +95.61% | “I'm very bullish on Taiwan. Following on from my Browave thesis...” |
| 2026-04-05 | $AMD | +91.99% | “$AMD are executing strong. Their Zen 6 leak points to a huge architectural leap...” |
| 2026-04-04 | $SNDK | +85.05% | “$NVDA's Neural Texture Compression cuts VRAM usage by up to 90%. I bet markets will fear...” |
| Date | Ticker | Ret 30d | Tweet preview |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | $GOOG | +19.22% | “I'm very bullish on Taiwan. Following on from my Browave thesis...” |
| 2026-04-09 | $AAPL | +18.79% | “I'm very bullish on Taiwan. Following on from my Browave thesis...” |
| 2026-04-07 | $AVGO | +18.77% | “$AVGO up >5% off the back of the news that they've signed multiyear agreements with $GOOGL...” |
| 2026-04-09 | $NVDA | +16.83% | “I'm very bullish on Taiwan...” |
| 2026-04-09 | $AVGO | +14.74% | “I'm very bullish on Taiwan...” |
| 2026-04-09 | $SPIR | +12.25% | “$SPIR down 10% on the news of a $70M ATM raise. Quite insignificant imo - ~$700M MC...” |
| 2026-04-09 | $TSM | +7.70% | “I'm very bullish on Taiwan...” |
| 2026-04-07 | $SPCX | +2.74% | “Matt Tuttle, you have my respect. His ETF ticker changed from $SPCX to $SPCK today...” |
| 2026-04-07 | $SPCK | +2.74% | “Matt Tuttle, you have my respect. His ETF ticker changed from $SPCX to $SPCK today...” |
| 2026-04-07 | $META | -0.16% | “Matt Tuttle, you have my respect. His ETF ticker changed from $SPCX to $SPCK today...” |
Yes. BULL alpha vs XLK is +6.19% / 14d (n=122) and +28.21% / 30d (n=37). Win rate 97% on the 30-day bucket is unusually high — every single resolved 30-day BULL signal except one was positive (or zero).
Unknown. The entire 70-day sample falls inside the March-May 2026 AI rally. The account itself was only created 2026-03-15 (<3 months old), so we have no out-of-sample data at all — not in this lookback, not in any earlier regime. The +97% WR / 30d is almost certainly upper-bounded by the bull-tape regime.
Supply-chain mapping. The thesis posts explicitly trace upstream component plays ($AAOI optical interconnect, $AEHR substrate test, $IQE / $AXTI substrate, $SNDK / $MU memory) to downstream AI-capex demand. This is harder to replicate from a generic mega-cap feed.
Sample size on the 30-day bucket (n=37) and the entire account history being <3 months. The biggest single winner ($SIVEF +270%) is a Stockholm listing whose cashtag does not always resolve in US pricing — included here but flagged as outlier-driver. Drop that one signal and 30d mean drops noticeably.
As a high-quality thematic input. Use the supply-chain mapping to discover mid-cap component plays you would otherwise miss, then size moderate and time-bounded (≤30d). Wait for one corrective tape before sizing aggressively — we have no bear-regime data to anchor on yet.
Data source. User-timeline endpoint, original tweets only (replies and pure retweets excluded). 353 tweets across 70 days — the maximum the timeline endpoint surfaces for this account at its posting cadence.
Ticker extraction. $TICKER cashtag regex with a curated non-ticker stop-list (e.g. $AI, $US, $YTD removed).
Sentiment classifier. Regex keyword lexicon (BULL: bullish, buy, long, added, breakout, ATH, target, runner; BEAR: bearish, short, sell, sold, dump, dilution, scam). BULL/BEAR if count strictly dominates; otherwise NEUTRAL.
Backtest mechanics. Entry next trading day open (T+1). Exits at +5d / +14d / +30d / +90d close. No transaction costs / slippage. Multiple mentions of the same ticker on the same day produce separate signals (no deduplication) — this reflects a literal “follow every tweet” baseline.
Benchmarks. SPY (broad market) and XLK (tech sector). XLK is the more demanding benchmark since virtually all signals are in AI / semis.
BULL signals returned +18.66% mean / 14d (n=122, WR 79%) and +55.58% / 30d (n=37, WR 97%) with +6.19% and +28.21% alpha vs XLK respectively. Supply-chain mapping is a real differentiator.
The account is <3 months old. The 70-day window is the entire history. The +97% / 30d WR is regime-bounded — expect normalization. No bear-tape data to anchor sizing against.
High-quality thematic input on AI / semis with explicit supply-chain mapping. Discover mid-cap component plays through the feed; size moderate and time-bounded (≤30d). Wait for one corrective tape before sizing aggressively.
Report generated 2026-05-25 by the fxcryptobots research desk. Source: @ParadisLabs public X timeline (user-timeline endpoint, original tweets only); price data from Yahoo Finance daily bars. Sentiment classifier is regex-based. Per-name returns are total return including dividends via auto-adjusted close. This is research and educational analysis, not investment advice; see our risk disclaimer.