AI is now the main driver of US equities. On Tuesday, October 6, 2026, the S&P 500 closed at its first record since August (+0.7%) and the Nasdaq Composite made a second straight record (+0.4%). Nvidia hit an all-time high with its market value approaching $6 trillion, a level no company has reached. AMD also made new highs after CEO Lisa Su said demand for compute is still outrunning supply, and Marvell rose about 8% after guiding to roughly $20 billion in fiscal-2028 revenue. The AI build-out also extends to power: Constellation Energy gained 13% the same day on a $4.3 billion, 20-year nuclear supply agreement with Google.
Nvidia's own reports keep getting larger. In its fiscal first quarter of 2027 (reported May 20, 2026) it posted record revenue of $81.6 billion, up 85% year over year, with $75.2 billion from the data center. For the quarter reported on August 26, 2026, revenue was reported at about $96 billion against roughly $92 billion expected. With the three largest companies now accounting for more than a fifth of the S&P 500, it seems reasonable to assume an Nvidia report affects everything, gold and Bitcoin included.
The same October 6 session shows the problem with that assumption. While AI stocks rallied, gold fell (it traded near $4,135 on October 7, about 26% below its January record) and Bitcoin dropped 1.5% to about $84,250. If AI optimism were feeding through to these assets directly, they wouldn't have moved in the opposite direction. So we tested it.
We used FXCryptoBots' one-minute price archive: XAUUSD from our Data Releases dataset and BTCUSDT from Binance one-minute history, both in UTC. We converted every timestamp to New York time, accounting for daylight saving, because Nvidia reports after the 4:00 pm ET US close. For each of the 13 Nvidia earnings dates from May 24, 2023 through May 20, 2026 (dates confirmed against Nvidia's SEC filings and press releases), we measured three windows:
For a baseline we ran the same windows on every other Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday between May 2023 and June 2026, roughly 450-480 evenings per asset depending on data gaps. Nvidia almost always reports midweek, so this compares like with like. We use medians of absolute moves because a few extreme days would distort averages.
| Report date | NVDA next day | QQQ next day | Gold 40 min | Gold next day | BTC 1 hour | BTC next day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2023 | +24.4% | +2.4% | -0.12% | -0.98% | +0.58% | +0.86% |
| Aug 23, 2023 | +0.1% | -2.1% | -0.04% | +0.05% | +0.23% | -1.90% |
| Nov 21, 2023 | -2.5% | +0.4% | -0.01% | -0.44% | -0.62% | +1.61% |
| Feb 21, 2024 | +16.4% | +2.9% | +0.06% | 0.00% | +0.38% | +1.69% |
| May 22, 2024 | +9.3% | -0.5% | -0.03% | -1.99% | -0.87% | -4.60% |
| Aug 28, 2024 | -6.4% | -0.2% | -0.13% | +0.57% | +0.16% | +0.26% |
| Nov 20, 2024 | +0.5% | +0.4% | +0.02% | +0.84% | +0.19% | +3.99% |
| Feb 26, 2025 | -8.5% | -2.8% | -0.07% | -1.54% | +0.48% | -1.17% |
| May 28, 2025 | +3.3% | +0.2% | -0.27% | +0.64% | +0.22% | -1.05% |
| Aug 27, 2025 | -0.8% | +0.6% | +0.08% | +0.79% | +0.18% | +0.01% |
| Nov 19, 2025 | -3.2% | -2.4% | +0.27% | +0.23% | +0.73% | -3.44% |
| Feb 25, 2026 | -5.5% | -1.2% | +0.08% | +0.74% | +0.12% | -2.32% |
| May 20, 2026 | -1.8% | +0.2% | -0.11% | -0.12% | +0.04% | +0.03% |
Gold 40 min = 4:15-4:55 pm ET on report day. BTC 1 hour = 4:15-5:15 pm ET. "Next day" = 4:15 pm ET report day to 4:00 pm ET next US session. NVDA/QQQ = next-day close-to-close (split-adjusted). Sources: FXCryptoBots XAUUSD M1 archive, Binance BTCUSDT 1m, Yahoo Finance daily closes.
| Summary (median absolute move) | Nvidia nights (n=13) | Normal Tue-Thu nights | Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold, release window (40 min) | 0.076% | 0.044% | 1.73x |
| Gold, next day | 0.64% | 0.66% | 0.96x |
| Bitcoin, release window (1 hour) | 0.23% | 0.23% | 1.04x |
| Bitcoin, next day | 1.61% | 1.71% | 0.94x |
Gold's move from the release to the next US close was in line with a normal evening: a 0.64% median absolute move against 0.66% on regular nights, with only 6 of 13 reports beating the baseline median. Gold does move a bit more in the first 40 minutes (1.73 times normal), but that means about eight basis points instead of four, which is less than a typical spread-and-slippage cost for a retail CFD trader. There's no trade here.
The direction doesn't line up either. The three largest Nvidia beats in the sample (+24.4% in May 2023, +16.4% in February 2024, +9.3% in May 2024) were followed by gold moves of -0.98%, 0.00% and -1.99%. The correlation between Nvidia's next-day return and gold's next-day return over the 13 reports was -0.31. That's a weak negative relationship on a small sample. At most it suggests that very strong AI days sometimes coincide with money moving out of defensive assets. It's not something to trade on.
Bitcoin's next-day move on Nvidia nights was also normal, 0.94 times the baseline. The useful finding is which asset it tracks. Bitcoin's next-day return correlated 0.60 with QQQ but only 0.17 with Nvidia. When Nvidia's report changed the mood of the whole tech index (February 2025: NVDA -8.5%, QQQ -2.8%, BTC -1.2%; November 2025: NVDA -3.2%, QQQ -2.4%, BTC -3.4%), Bitcoin moved with the index. When Nvidia jumped but the index didn't (May 2024: NVDA +9.3%, QQQ -0.5%), Bitcoin ignored Nvidia and fell 4.6% with the broader market.
So for a crypto trader, an Nvidia report only matters if it changes the Nasdaq. A stock-specific beat or miss doesn't move Bitcoin. A report that shifts how the market views the whole AI capex cycle does.
Bitcoin rose in the first hour after 11 of the 13 reports. That looks significant at first, but the average move was +0.14%, about the size of normal noise for that hour, and the next-day results were split 7 up and 6 down. It might be a small risk-on effect from after-hours equity futures, or it might be chance. Either way, the edge disappears after fees.
Practical takeaway: If you trade gold, you don't need to adjust for Nvidia earnings. If you trade Bitcoin, watch Nasdaq futures after the release, not Nvidia's own after-hours price. Fewer than half of the 13 reports produced a bigger-than-normal next-day move in either asset.
Earnings are scheduled, and options markets price them in advance. A fair objection is that the real test is an unscheduled AI shock. The biggest one so far came on Monday, January 27, 2025, when the low-cost DeepSeek R1 model raised doubts about how much AI compute the industry would need. Nvidia fell about 17% and lost roughly $589 billion of market value, the largest one-day loss for any company in US market history. The Philadelphia semiconductor index dropped about 9%.
Our data for that weekend, from Friday's 4:00 pm ET close to Monday's close:
| DeepSeek shock (Fri Jan 24 → Mon Jan 27, 2025) | Move | Percentile vs. 140 normal Fri→Mon windows |
|---|---|---|
| Nvidia (Mon close-to-close) | -17.0% | — |
| QQQ (Mon close-to-close) | -2.9% | — |
| Gold (XAUUSD) | -1.08% | ~66th |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) | -3.31% | ~67th |
Even the worst single-day loss for any company in history moved gold and Bitcoin by amounts that were only somewhat larger than a normal weekend. Gold's -1.08% compares with a 0.59% median for a normal Friday-to-Monday window. Bitcoin's -3.31% compares with a 2.18% median. Both fell, and neither acted as a hedge that day. Gold's fall was consistent with traders selling liquid winners to cover equity losses, and Bitcoin traded like the risk asset it usually is. But neither move was anywhere near the scale of what happened to Nvidia or the semiconductor index.
Taken together, the two tests suggest that AI news mostly stays within equities. It reaches gold and crypto only to the extent that it changes broader things: the overall equity index, risk appetite and, most importantly, the path of interest rates.
If the earnings reports don't link these markets, the October 6 session shows what does. AI stocks hit records while gold and Bitcoin fell, and the common factor is the cost of money. The 10-year Treasury yield was 5.27% that day and the 30-year was 5.64%, close to its highest level since 2002. The Federal Reserve raised rates on September 16 to 3.75%-4.00%, its first hike since 2023, in a 12-0 vote, and 16 of its 18 officials projected at least one more increase this year. The September jobs report released on October 2 was weak (+29,000 payrolls against expectations of roughly 84,000-95,000), which lowered the odds of an October hike. Even so, the long end of the curve has stayed elevated.
High yields affect these assets differently. A company growing earnings 50-85% a year can absorb a 5% discount rate. An asset with no cash flow can't, whether it's a bar of gold or a bitcoin. That's why the market can push Nvidia toward $6 trillion while marking gold down about 5% in a month. Investors are making the same calculation for both: earnings growth versus the rate.
Geopolitics feeds in through the same channel rather than through safe-haven demand. With the Strait of Hormuz still closed and Brent averaging $114 in September (EIA) before easing to around $100 this week, energy has kept US inflation elevated, which is part of why the Fed has been hiking. For gold traders in 2026, oil prices matter mainly through what they do to rate expectations.
The framework: AI earnings decide which stocks win. Interest rates decide whether gold and Bitcoin can rally. An Nvidia print matters for your gold or BTC position only if it changes the rates picture, for example through a big upward revision to capex that raises growth and inflation expectations, or a capex warning that hits the Nasdaq and pushes the market toward pricing Fed cuts.
Thirteen events is a small sample, so the correlations here (-0.31 for gold versus Nvidia, 0.60 for Bitcoin versus QQQ) should be read as descriptive, not statistically conclusive. Other macro news on report days can dominate the result. The May 2024 gold drop of almost 2%, for example, most likely reflected broader macro news that day rather than anything about semiconductors. Our gold data is spot XAUUSD from one feed, and Bitcoin is the Binance USDT pair. Other venues will differ by a few basis points. The August 26, 2026 report falls after the end of our archived minute data (early July 2026), so it isn't included. We'll add it, and the next report, in a future update.
Not meaningfully. Across 13 reports (May 2023 to May 2026), gold's median absolute move from the release to the next US close was 0.64%, against 0.66% on an ordinary Tuesday-Thursday evening. The first 40 minutes are slightly more active (about 0.08% vs 0.04%), but that's too small to trade after costs.
Only through the Nasdaq. Bitcoin's next-day moves on Nvidia nights were normal in size (1.61% vs 1.71% median). Its next-day return correlated 0.60 with QQQ and only 0.17 with Nvidia, so what matters is whether the report moves the whole tech index.
Somewhat. On January 27, 2025, Nvidia fell about 17% and lost roughly $589 billion of value. From Friday's close to Monday's close, gold fell 1.08% and Bitcoin 3.31%, roughly 66th-67th percentile moves against normal weekends. Neither worked as a hedge, and neither moved anywhere near as much as chip stocks did.
Because both are reacting to high interest rates, in opposite directions. Fast-growing AI earnings can absorb a 5%+ 10-year Treasury yield, and assets with no cash flow can't. On October 6, 2026, Nvidia and the Nasdaq made records while gold slipped and Bitcoin fell 1.5%, with the 10-year at 5.27% after a September Fed hike.
A report that changes the outlook for interest rates. A sharp capex warning that hits the whole Nasdaq and pushes the market toward pricing Fed cuts could support gold. A huge upward capex revision that raises growth and inflation expectations could push yields higher and weigh on gold. A beat or miss confined to Nvidia's own stock does little.
XAU Sentinel combines rates, the dollar, oil and headlines into one gold sentiment score that updates every 15 minutes. Data Releases has years of minute-level gold reactions to CPI, payrolls and the FOMC. BF Explorer ranks Binance Futures momentum, and Paper Trading lets you test an AI basket without risking money.
XAU Sentinel Gold Chart NFP × Gold BF Explorer Paper Trading Join the TelegramSources and data notes: Nvidia report dates and quarterly figures are from Nvidia press releases and SEC Form 8-K filings (Q4 FY26 on Feb 25, 2026; Q1 FY27 on May 20, 2026); August 26, 2026 results are from XTB's same-day coverage. October 6, 2026 market data (index records, NVDA/AMD highs, Marvell guidance, Constellation-Google deal, Treasury yields, Bitcoin) is from Yahoo Finance's market-close coverage. Gold on Oct 7 is from Trading Economics. The September 16 FOMC decision is from Kitco. The September payrolls report (Oct 2) is from Fox Business. The September Brent average is from the US EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook. DeepSeek-day Nvidia figures are from Bloomberg's Jan 27, 2025 coverage. All gold and Bitcoin reaction statistics are FXCryptoBots' own calculations on our XAUUSD M1 archive and Binance BTCUSDT 1-minute data (May 2023 to June 2026). NVDA and QQQ daily returns are from Yahoo Finance. This is research, not investment advice.